Its All About Commodity trading : Chirag Kabani

Natural Gas medium term Update -- Supports & Resistance

2012-01-14T00:06:00.000-08:00

Natural gas Started the Last leg of Major downfall From 4.954 in month of may Falling more than 45 % currenty trading at 2.71 $ , the Complete Downfall Looks like a clear 5 wave structure where at this point of time we are in v of 5 of C ,

The possible pattern targets where Natrual gas Could find support is Currently at 2.55 $ (wave 5 = 1.618% of wave 1) , The Complete downfall is in a Clear Downward Channel Which has important channel support at 2.62--2.65 $ zone $

Hence This Current Zone of 2.55$ --- 2.67$ Zone is Very important Support Zone for Longterm , On daily charts the RSI 14 is currently at 29 Which is almost approaching the oversold Zone. at This point of time we Dont have any reversal pattern visible which May indicate that the prices have bottomed out , but it Clearly is not a Place to go Shorts for medium term Unless these Supports are broken , If broken we May head to immediate Next support at 2.38

Looking at the Long term weekly charts We may be in Process of Making a B wave Low and a High probability of Major reversal From current Levels For Next 6--9 Months cant be rulled out

But before taking Any Longs one has to wait For Confirmation of Price reversal as price is King and Once confirmed the Upside Projected targets would be 3.65--4.25 Immediately and Much Higher If this Levels are taken out again

Silver Possible head & shoulder

2011-09-15T08:24:00.000-07:00

Silver is making a potential Head & shoulder Pattern with neckline near 39.5 $ , if we see daily close Below same for next two three Days we could See a sharp Fall till 35 $ , The importnat 55 DMA is also near 39.5 $ a improntat place to watch . Looking at the wave Counts we still have the Same previous bearish counts open with cureent move as 1 of 3 of c with Final targets till 29 $

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Gold & Silver Charts , Gold Could be near a short term top

2011-08-07T22:50:00.000-07:00

Gold Makes a Run away , Exhausation gap at open today and manges to Cross the Longterm weekly Resistance of 1684 which was very Crucial level For bears , Expecting high Volatility in Intraday Now coz of short Covering Which can take prices up will 1707--1716 , which Co-incides with wave Levels of 5=1 . A Failure to close abv 1716 Could be indiaction of Medium term top in Close and Push Prices DOwn till 1525 which would be 23.6 % retracement of Complete Move of decade , if we C the Prices pushing Higher abt 1716 could be a extended 5th which can go higher till 1781 than

Silver : Explanation on Charts

Copper Weekly Medium term Update

2011-07-23T23:26:00.000-07:00

Copper Prices After topping out For medium Term at 10150 LME prices Corrected till 8400 Levels in wave A of 2 , Now Looks like to have Completed the Corrective Wave B at 9640 of wave (2) . Failure to Cross The Recent highs Could Push price Again Down till 8400 & 7700 in Medium term as wave C which mark end of Wave (2)

What next on Silver ? A Contradict Move to Massive Up Move

2011-07-13T08:51:00.001-07:00

Failure to CLOSE ABOVE 39.2 $ On Daily closing Basis Could Lead to MASSIVE reversal downside

Daily Trading Levels , MCX Supports And Resistance , Commodities , Base Metals

2011-06-27T03:43:00.000-07:00

BASE METALS

Copper : Trend Sideways - Range Bound -
Important Resistance 411-412 ,Close above same one can expect levels of 419-420.

On downside 398-399 Important Support range. Below which we can test 385/390
Levels on upside 405-408.5-411-413

Lead : Trend Up

Lead reverses from major resistance zone given earlier Major Resistance zone remains at 116-116.5
Sustained move above 116-116.5 can do 118.5-119 on upside
On downside 112.5-113 support for intraday.. 107.5-108 Major Support range for the comm

Zinc : Trend Slightly Bullish

Zinc reverses from major resistance zone given earlier Major Resistance zone remains at 116-116.5
ABove 101.5 if sustains then may do 103-103.5

MInor Support at 98-98.5. On downside 95-95.5 Important Support range

Nickel : Trend Sideways

Important Support near 955-960 Levels , Major Resistance zone 1000-1005 on Upside
Nickel buy above 1000-1005 range with stop of 990, can do 1035/1040 on upside
Trend Reversal if it closes above 1010.. Levels on downside 980-960-950

Silver update

2011-05-12T04:50:00.000-07:00

Silver Looks to have Completed 5 waves down From Recent High of 49.7 & looks like time For Seriously Sharp Pull back , if the 5th wave gets extended Breack of 32 $ would be a confirmation of same , than Can Extend till 28.4 ..but When we Look at other Precious metals Charts Along with it Should See a bottom near these levls and again pull back to 44 Levels in coming days

Mcx trading Levels For Day

2011-04-24T21:16:00.000-07:00

Support & Resistance For The day

Gold 21835--21960-22040-22210-22333-22486

Silver 68300-69180--70400--71650

Copper 428.6-435--439-442-445
Lead 115.4--116.8-118.2-199.6-121
Zinc 102.4--103.6-105-106.6-108
Nickel 1188-1210-1234-1252--1284

Crude Oil 4850-4934-5010-5160-5240
Natural gas 192.5-195.6-197-200.4-204

#Silver medium term view

2011-04-05T02:47:00.000-07:00

Looking at silver weekly charts for past decade the rally which started from almost 3.50 $ to current price of 38.5$,it clearly looks likes near end of extended massive bull run of 5 waves and now could get into corrective phase (wave 2 a-b-c ) for next few months. Any new high on silver would be a good sell opportunity or a break of 36 dollar would confirm a medium term top and we could look at short term downside targets of 32.5 $ and 27 $

Snapshot :

#silver break of 36$ could confirm a medium term top & correct down till 32.5$ and than 27$ , $slv , Good sell on rise #askchirag any new highs or rallies good setup to create shorts

#copper , #gold , #silver Trading Levels For short term

2011-03-23T02:05:00.000-07:00

Copper (MCX) Looks Strong -- till time prices holding the Key Level of 430 --- One Can expect An Further upside till 442--445--449 , Downside Below 430 Support at 426.5 ---410

Gold & silver Faceing Resistance near Previous week's high on Comex , a Sustained trade Above Same Can Push prices Further up on Gold till 1447$ --1465 $--1489 $ and on Silver 36.5 $---37.2 $--38.4$
On downside Important Support on Gold now at 1415 $ & silver 35.2 $

#Silver Near medium term channel Resistance

2011-03-02T23:44:00.000-08:00

Silver Will Face Strong Resistance near 35.1 $ lvls which is upper end of medium term Channel .Its moving in channel From Lows of 18.6$ . The weekly RSI is also overbought and currently trading abv sub 75 lvls . Once can expect a short term top to be in place at 34.96 lvls and expect some Sideways consolidation to Downside . The immediate important Support Now is at 31.25 $, a Close below same can lead to Further Correction till 28$

#gold short term view

2011-02-14T02:32:00.001-08:00

Gold prices Re-tested the Neckline Resistance of breakdown From multiple tops made Near 1422 Levels Zone previous Week,Which also Looks like a Complex Head & shoulder pattern. The Neckline as if now is poised near Same levels as of 100 DMA currently at 1368$ . Which is proving to be strong Resistance .

On the downside the 55 DMA at 1332 $ is also Proving a Strong Support below that important Support comes at 1305 Levels which also co-incised with the Short term Bottom and Medium term channel Trend line .

till time Prices are trading below 100 DMA and Key neckline Resistance . We Look downwards on gold Prices to test previous bottom and Final Reach the Patterns target at 1240 $ . Stops Could be well placed above 1384 $ closing basis . A Close above Same Would Invalid the view .

have crude & copper topped out ?

2011-02-03T07:28:00.001-08:00

Copper MCX Possible Price Targets at 380 SL abv 475 closing

Crude MCX possible price targets below 3400 Rupess Stops Abv 4300 closing basis

Copper Short term view

2011-01-24T01:34:00.000-08:00

copper has formed a double top at 9800 levels and even broken the short term trendline , re-test of resistance done today . break of 9300 levels would open down side targets of 8900 levels

silver short term update

2011-01-13T01:54:00.001-08:00

Silver has formed a short term top at 31.15 $ and looks like has started to correct down in set of 5 waves with the first wave over at 27.7 $ and wave 2 at 29.8 , the third wave looks like headed for sub 25 levls . With Final target of 22.4 (wave5)

Gold Silver Update

2010-12-14T05:12:00.001-08:00

Unlike Gold, Silver seems to be completing a final v subminor up. This seems to be a completion of the leg up from Nov 2009. And considering the large exponential blow off that we illustrated prior and Silver topping the Jiseki rankings we continue to look at any leg up on Silver now as the last leg after which the white metal should fall back into 22.40 previous iv wave supports. Gold also seem to be in the final Y minor leg up and should follow silver down.

Done in association with orpheous Asia Intraday Service (Ticks Global)

GOLD.SILVER.DOLLAR.OIL

2010-11-23T03:19:00.000-08:00

Gold has a clear five wave impulse down. The B wave should end near 1,380 levels after which the C wave down to new lows below 1,320 should begin. Silver looks more like a 3-3-5 structure. We see the B wave complete and prices starting a C leg lower till 25. OIL is also stagnating in a B wave, which should resolve lower. Dollar index remains in B wave till price clearly move above 79.55 previous highs.

(Article written in association with Orpheus CAPITALS -- ticks Global Intraday Service)

http://orpheus.asia/orpheus/ids.php?serviceid=23

Forex update JPY.EUR.GBP.AUD vs. USD

2010-11-22T09:14:00.000-08:00

USDJPY. Prices have completed a five wave structure suggesting that the bounce back could push back up till previous 4 wave levels at 86.
EURDUSD is in a 2 wave counter trend wave that should not push above 1.38-1.39 resistance levels. After the ongoing bounce prices should move back 1.3238 levels.
AUDUSD. The price Reversal below 1.000 suggest that B wave is also over and prices are headed down till 0.9350 . The price action also has a potential Head and shoulder neckline near 0.9700. A break here will also confirm the preferred negative view.
GBPUSD. Prices have completed the Wave B up at 1.5900 levels and are headed down till 1.5600.

LME Nickel Medium term view

2010-11-12T03:18:00.001-08:00

The B minor corrective (counter-trend) seems over and now the prices should move lower in the C wave back below previous low at 17,000. Sub 24,000 we continue to look lower.

LME Nickel Short term view

2010-10-18T09:06:00.000-07:00

LME Nickel breaks the Medium term Trend Line with a Strong Gap Down , Intraday Fills back the Gap and The Support Becomes Strong Resistance and prices Reverse , If In Medium Term Nickel Fails to Cross 24300 lvls , Can On Downside correct till 22400 lvls or 21900

Gold Near Resistance Zone

2010-10-13T08:10:00.000-07:00

Gold Near important Trend line Resistance in zone of of 1380-1387 $ ,
The Rsi is Extremely overbought and Showing Negative Divergence . This Resistance is Almost near physiological Resistance of 1400 $ ,
This even co-incised with wave counts of Major 3 -5th wave Extended , Suggesting we are Near top. Will Look for key Reversal Here Any time soon , Opening Downside targets till 1310--1265 $

Dowjones Potential Head & shoulders , Might have topped out Yesterday

2010-09-15T05:54:00.000-07:00

Dowjones Could Be Heading lower towards price Target of 9950 With making of potentail Right Shoulder and than Finally to 9200 later on . The above view Is negated if prices Moves above 10700 levels

Gold Short term view

2010-09-14T09:23:00.001-07:00

Prices Head For Crucial Resistance Zone of 1288-1295$ levels , Almost Near the physiological Resistance of 1300 $ , We Expect The prices to Reverse From the Current level Looking at the Negative Divergence on RSI and Resistance coming up From upwards End of Rising Wedge ,

Silver Short term view

2010-09-07T04:26:00.000-07:00

Silver Short term : Silver is Highly overbought Zone , and has made A hanging man Candle Stick reversal pattern Near Resistance Level of 20 $ . In Short term , Shorts Can be Taken with Sl above abv 20 $ on closing basis , for Down Side Targets of 19.3 $ & 18.9 $

2010-08-12T01:40:00.001-07:00

Gold MCX & comex medium term View

2010-07-02T09:32:00.000-07:00

Gold MCX weekly Charts technical outlook

Gold made a lifetime High of 19198 Rupees in the first week of June 2010 , And Formed a Doji at top of charts on weekly which is Sign of short term reversal

Looking Closely at weekly Charts it almost reversed From top end of the Channel in which it has been trending Since of February 2009

Gold Initially in mid month of Feb made a high of 16036 And corrected to 13931 in Next 10 Weeks giving a correction of approx 13 % . Later on bounced back to Make a New high at 17650 and Corrected to 15950 in next 10 weeks correcting almost 10 % , the correction period both the time Lasted for 10 weeks
Now at current levels it has again reversed From top end of same channel and expecting it to take Support at bottom End of Channel which is near 17200 levels and almost indicating that it could be a approx 10 % correction if it follows same time sequence of correcting approx 10 % in 10 weeks From top which it made First week of June and Than we could expect targets of 17200 lvls around second week of august
RSI on weekly charts has Also Reversed From overbought Zone and point downwards currently placed at 65 zone

Week end Feb 15 2009 12th April 2009
16036- -13931 net Change --- 2105 Rs == ~ 13 %
correction Time Period ~ 10 Weeks

weekend 29 nov 2009 31st January 2010
17650—15950 net Change = 1700 ~ 10 %
correction Time Period ~ 10 Weeks

Week ended 6th June 2010 - 19198 -- ????? Expected target 17200 lvls
19198—17000 net change 2198 ~~~ Approx 11.5 % correction Expected by August Second week

Gold GC Comex

Gold Comex made a life time high of 1265 $ which was end of 5th wave of Complete up move which Started From medium term Low of 1044 $ made in Mid may of 2010 . Now is start of 3 wave corrective pattern Which would Open Downside targets of wave a till 1165 $ and than probably bounce back till 1230 $ lvls Which could be Wave B and than Final wave C ending at 1121 $

Note both the above views would be Negated if Comex Gold Crosses 1265 $ in short term Or MCX gold Closes above 19000 Rupees

Euro Short term 1.2610---1.2840 Possible

2010-07-01T06:01:00.001-07:00

Gold Short term view

2010-06-18T04:32:00.000-07:00

Gold Comex Yesterday Re-tested The Recent Double top High of 1251 $ which is now a triple top On daily Charts

A Strong Resistance to Cross Over-1251--1253 Zone
Closely looking at daily Charts it has also formed a Cup handle pattern Suggesting that breakout above 1251-1253 zone & sustained trading above Same Can take it to 1281 $--1312 $ In short term
Failure to Cross Over above 1251 and close above it for two days could negate the pattern. On Downside if Manages to Break 1227 $ it can lead to Re-test of Recent Lows Near 1205--1164 $ .
As Far as 1227 $ is held on closing basis Look to Trade on upside for targets of 1281 $--1312

Silver Short term view

2010-06-15T09:28:00.000-07:00

askchirag.com : Silver view short term :

Everywhere People are Talking about the Massive Head & shoulder formation in Silver comex on daily charts which is a Bearish pattern and Silver Could Fall Down to 14.25 levels But technically speaking The massive breakdown Will come only If silver trades constantly below 18 $ and than breaks the important Support level of 17.05 $ (Neckline of head & shoulder pattern) , A Break below 17 $ will Confirm the above Pattern and open Downside targets till 14.25 $--but Contradicting to above pattern it has formed a massive Inverted head & shoulder pattern With Neckline near 18.75 $ , a break above Same can open upside targets till 19.8 $--21.44 $
So overall currently trading at 18.55 $ technically its in a neutral zone and next big move would Only happen if manges to close above 18.75 $ or break below 18 $ till than would be Range bound
Looking at RSI charts its constantly reversing From 40 Zone which generally tends to Happen in bullish phase So looking to Trade it more buy on dips till time 18.00 $ is not Broken

Short term Reco : Buy silver at 18.5 $ SL of 18 $ Look for 19.8 $--21.44 $

Crude Short term view

2010-06-10T01:13:00.000-07:00

Crude Short term technical views

Crude made a low of 67 $ on 25th Way after falling From the cliff of triple tops made at 87.25 $ and Sharply bounced back to 75.6$ later Falling back to make a higher bottom at sub 70 levels and bounced back to 74 levels, breaking the short term Falling Trend Line Resistance . If in next Few Days Crude if manages to Cross over 75.6 $ than a medium term Bottom Could be in Place and on upside could give a sharp move to 79.5 & 81 $

Resistance Levels: 75.6 (short term top)—76.95 (50 % Retracement levels of complete Move From 87.25-67$)---79.5$(61.8- Retracement levels of complete Move From 87.25-67$)--- 81 $ ( a Higher top Above Short term top)

Supports Levels: 72.5 $ - Support From Falling trend line which was resistance before -69.3 $ short term Bottom

Looks like Crude is all Set for a Big Rally again till 81$ and 83.4 $, Looking to Trade it on upside with Stop Below 71 $ For and Look to Enter on Dips in Range of 73-74 $

On MCX if Crude Manges to Close above 3410 Can Slow and Steady Rise till 3640--3710 Lvls

MCX Supports Resistance Levels

2010-06-07T03:37:00.000-07:00

Comex Gold : Trend Sideways Consolidation - Range Bound
Range: 1190--1220
Resistance Levels : 1220--1128-1236
Supports: 1190-1196-1204-1212

MCX gold : Double top @ 18850
Trend : Trend Sideways Consolidation - Range Bound
Resistance :18700-18850
Support: 18250-18333-18514

Comex Silver : Important Support at 17$
Trend : neutral
Trend Reversal levels 17.64 $
Trading levels : 1700-1717-1733-1741-1764

MCX Silver : Trend Sideways to Consolidation
Trend Reversal Bullish only abv 28700
Important Support at 27900 Below that weak
Trading levels : 27900-28050-28130-28264-28490-28700

Nymex Crude : Trend Buy on Dips
Trading Levls : 69.4-70.15-71.4-72.6
Important Resistance - 71.4 Above that Expect some short covering till 72.6

MCX crude : Trend Buy on Dips
Trading levels : 3340-3368-3391-3410
Important Resistance : 3410

BASE METALS

Copper : Trend Weak - Important Resistance 298 ,Close above same one can Expect Trend Reversal.
On downside 281 Important Support

Lead : Trend Weak - Highly oversold
Expecting Some value buying at lower levels Near 72-73 Zone , Resistance at 75 above which can expect Some short covering till 77.35
Trading levels : 72.5-73.4-74.6-75.3-76-77.35

Zinc : Trend Weak - Highly oversold
Expecting Some value buying at lower levels Near 75, Resistance at 76.8 Above which Can Expect Short covering till 79.8 levels
Trading levels: 75.3-76.1-76.8-78.4-79.8

Nickel : Trend weak - Oversold
Important Support near 800- 821 Levels , One Can look to Take Longs near those levels With Sl below 790 for Trading bounce back till 875 levels
Trading levels - 800-821-838-844-861-874-891

Crude Short term

2010-04-18T06:43:00.001-07:00

Playing With Trendlines
Crude has Breached The Short-term trendline Support at 83 and tested the next Support at previous Bottom of 82.5 making a double bottom at that Same Place , Sustained Trading below Same Can Lead to Next Support Imp at 81.8 Below that Can Retest 79.8 * 77 $ Supports

Gold Inverted HEad & shoulders

2010-04-18T06:23:00.001-07:00

Gold Inverted Head & shoulders , After fridays Selloff took Support near The neckline , Fresh Longs Can be taken with SL below 1110 Closing basis For upside tagrets of 1180--1209

Crude Short term view

2010-04-07T13:17:00.000-07:00

Crude has formed a Hanging Man - Doji at top end of end of channel which is a whiplash near the top end of channel Resistance . Indicating that a Short Term top May be in place. Failure to Close abv 87 in next day or two Could drag it down to sub 82 lvls . The RSI has also Started pointing downwards again after Hitting the Overbought Zone

Reco : Short on Rise With SL above 87.3 with downsid etargets of 83.5 & 82

( Click on Read Rest of entry & click on Graph to have Larger view of Charts )

Natural gas Short term view

2010-03-17T09:52:00.001-07:00

Euro- technical view

2010-03-12T06:26:00.000-08:00

Euro On 4 hours Charts has formed Strong Doji near the Resistance Zone indicating Trend Reversal possible , Could again Fall back to1. 3500 lvls In turn pulling Down , Precious Metals & basemeatls along with it -- Fresh Longs only to be taken in if Euro manges to Cross 1.3800

Attached EURO CHART

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Gold Possible Inverted head & shoulders

2010-03-02T09:58:00.000-08:00

Gold possible IHS on daily comex charts -- Neckline placed at 1137 $ , Close and Sustained Trading abv Same can open upside trgt till 1160--1174 in short term , Failure to Cross Same could Lead to Retest on downside again till 1110 $

Gold Short term 1125--1132 Strong Resistance to Cross

2010-03-01T05:42:00.000-08:00

Gold Strong Resistance near 1125--1132 Zone in Near Term,

Looking at the Daily Charts of Gold in Medium term It has been moving in a Sideways downward biased Channel , the top end of the Channel is now near the 1123--1125 Zone Which will be A Strong Resistance to Cross ( Marked with PINK Lines on the Chart)

and in the Short term it has been Moving in a triangle (marked with orange Lines) So break above 1126 Zone Would Face Resistance at 1132 Where the upward Rising trend line of triangle is based. Which indicates that Fresh longs Should be taken if the Daily Close Manages to Close above 1132 levels for upside target of 1163--1174 targets , On Downside break of 1102 Will again indicate that the trend is Reversing again to Retest the Downward end of channel with Breakdown from the triangle opening Downside target till 1088--1065 $ -1044$ - 1005 $ , which Would possibly Mean the end of Short Term Zigzag Correction

The Leading indicators on Daily & 4 hours Charts have shown a Cross Over on the Downside from overbought Zones, Indicating some Shorts Are Being Created near Current levels

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silver

2010-02-26T09:06:00.001-08:00

Silver has been moving in a Expanding triangle and wave count shows a Possible Start of third Wave with EURO also Supporting as far 15.65 Holds on closing Basis one can Expect an upside target of 17.55 lvls

Euro Short term view

2010-02-26T08:29:00.000-08:00

Euro Does Double Bottom on Daily Charts , with the Second candle as Hammer and Some Follow up buying Coming up , The Following day - This Indicates that a Short Term bottom is in place and Some Retracement till 1.4000 lvls Cant be Rulled out , Look to Buy on Dips till 1.3400 is Held

An upmove in Euro Could Lead to Rise in PM metals Also Opeing an upside trgt of Gold till 1160 & slvr 16.8--17.35 Zone

Silver Comex

2010-02-25T02:20:00.000-08:00

Possible Wave Count on Silver

As Far 15.65 is Held on Downside One can play longs For Trgt of 16.05--16.2

Mentha Oil short term view

2009-12-23T04:24:00.001-08:00

Mentha Oil Hourly chart view : Menthaoil has Formed triple Bottom Near the Support Zone of 575 , The Hourly charts are in Oversold Zone and Last Candle of trading Session today closed in Hammer , Which indicates pause in the Downtrend and a Reversal possible , All Longs SL would be Below 570 Closing Basis

A Close Below 570 Could open possible Downside targets till 540 Again On the upside 592--597-601-610 are the Resistance For the December Future , a Close above 597 would mean That Mentha oil has Bottomed out For Short Term and Could Open upside Possible targets of 610--624-- 630 in the short term

The Current trend is in the consolidation phase between 575 & 597 .. Breach on any side closing basis with good volumes for a Day or two would Suggest the further trend

Gold Short term view

2009-12-17T13:33:00.000-08:00

( Click On the image For larger view)

Gold after Making new Life time High at 1226.25 $ , Saw Some Sharp correction & profit Booking in past three Weeks Correcting more than 11 % due to strengthing Dollar, manged to Closed today below the psychological level of 1100 $ making a Intraday low of 1095 $

Technical view: Gold has Multiple supports in the Range of 1085 $ --1070 $ . The Current fall should halt anywhere between these levels before it Resumes a pull back or Starts consolidating in Range of 1065 $--1123 $ . The First support is at 1083 $ which is Cuming from the trend line Support From the August 2009 Lows of 925 $ and Rising to above Levels . The Second Important Support Comes at 1078 $ which is 50 % Retracement Level of the Complete up move Which started from 922.5 $ in August 2009 to current high of 1226.25 $ December 2009 & below that is support coming From previous Resistance line - trend line Connecting the March 2008 high to Jan 2009 high Placed at 1070 $ . Sustained Trading below the 55 EMA at 1102 levels would mean that gold Is heading to test the above Mentioned Support levels

The daily charts Slow Stoch is completely in oversold zone and near the cross over suggesting a Small pull back is or consolidation near current levels cant be ruled out . The 14DRSI is at 39 approaching the Oversold zone .

A Close below 1070 $ level would Mean that gold in setting stage for a Longer term bearish market Opening further Possible downside till 1033 $ --1018 $-084 $

Comex Silver Short term view

2009-11-12T09:30:00.000-08:00

What Next On Silver ???

Case a) marked With Pink Round Arrows Showing possibility of making of head & shoulder pattern case b ) Marked with orange arrow --- big Move & flag bullish flag consolidation

Case a) Silver If breaks 17.1 than a strong case of it forming Head & shoulder pattern over short term arises ..with neckline at 16.35 & breach below Same Would open an downside target of 14.1
Case b ) Shows that silver is consolidations Mood up after the large up move From 16$ to 17.75 $ and would breakout Soon ..any close abv 17.8 Would open upside Possible targets of 18.4--19.6

Summary : So the Most important lvls For Silver in short term are 16.35---17.1---17.8--18.4
While 17.1 indicating breakdown of Flag and test of Neckline at 16.35 possible & close abv 17.8 would mean that the short term Bullish Trend is still continued

Crude Short Term view

2009-11-09T13:37:00.000-08:00

Crude oil has been Consildating in sideways channel For past two weeks after the big move from 65 $ to Recent high of 82 $ --- Looking closely at the Consolidation Looks like a bullish Flag and could consilidate for some More Days before breaking on upside opening potential targets of 87$--92$ in the Cuming Weeks

traders Can Look to Buy on every Dip and maintain a SL below 74 $ closing Basis or enter in Fresh Trades When Crude Breaks out of the Channel above 81.25 $

Resistance on upside 84$--87.5$--92$

Supports on Downside 76.7$--75.4$-74 $

Natural Gas Short Term view

2009-11-09T12:58:00.001-08:00

Natural Gas Comex : Natural gas made new monthly low of 4.470 at start of the week to Exactly take support near the 55 EMA (marked by aqua line) on daily charts & bounced back to close near 4.665 lvls

Closely Looking at the EOD charts , yesterday Closing was a hammer Which Signals possibility of trend Reversal or Atleast some Sideways consilidation With Retracemnt . The Close is also Exactly the Near the Resistance of Falling trend Line which is Cuming From Recent top of 5.940

Traders Can take Small risk to go Long here with a SL below 4.351 Which is medium term strong Support and Look for a Possible Bounce on upside to Fib Retracemnet lvls of Complete Move From 5.940 to Low of 4.470 Trend Reversal level == 4.820 (23.6 %) --

5.105(38.2%) -- 5.265 (50 % retracement)

Looking at Indicators RSI is around 30 lvls & Fast Stoch is below avg 20 lvls Clearly indicating that its in oversold Zone and a Bounce cannot be Rulled out

Happy Diwali

2009-10-16T22:29:00.000-07:00

May the divine light of diwali
spread into your Life
peace, prosperity, happiness
and good health.

hiii Everyone ,

First of all warm & personal wishes of Diwali to you & family , may u have the best of time going forward

Its been a month almost i Didnt post any updates on the blog , aplogies For Same . The Month back Was full of excitment and rough time for me .

On the good news Front as clearly advised to my paid Clients gold gave a Major breakout above 1012 as advised to them .

Sucessfully Conducted a Seminar For more than 150 MCX traders in Mumbai -- Gold the Next Blockbuster ---

The Seminar coverd Myths of commodity trading, use of technicals at its best , trading Strategies & genral physcology of trading -- all these would help a trade in best way to pick the right Commodity to trade and swer his Simple Question What to trade ?? & when to trade & what target to trade it for ??

The Seminar ended with a Short term view on GOLD, silver, Crude thats what all actually wanted " Market Kya lagta Hai"

Had a bit of down time too in between as my health Conditions were again bad and Couldnt spend Much time on posting things on website Though services to paid Clients were on time & excellent Calls were Deliverd Week on week basis ,

Mid last week just gave a Discount offer of 10 % on subscription Fees to yahoo Clients for new & old clients -- subscirbe for 3 Months at a go & get 10 % discount and the response on same was amazing . Those who missed it as i couldnt update on my blog ... Buzz me again before the 20thoct and avail same

Would be back to Posting the latest view post diwali -- and keep updateing you all

Finally Once again -- have a great Weekend ahead n joy Diwali with Maximum Friends & family

Chirag Kabani

http://www.askchirag.com/

Gold Short term view 200909

2009-09-20T04:32:00.000-07:00

(Click on the image to Have Enlarged proper view)

Gold edged higher to 1025.8 last week but lost upside momentum ahead of 1033.9 key resistances. With bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, a short term top might be in place. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'd expect some pull back towards 983.2 support. Nevertheless, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 931.3 to 1025.8 at 967.4 and bring rally resumption. On the upside, while another rise might be seen, it now looks like 1033.9 key resistances will hold on first attempt and bring consolidations first.
Looking carefully at last week move which is first caution Sign for Bulls the weekly closing candle is DOJI clearly indicating a Indecisive Move Ahead. On the daily charts it has formed bearish engulfing pattern. The Continuous chart of 4 hours showing a Clear Candlestick bearish reversal pattern with a Shooting Star at the top. Looking at all the above condition and lead indicators which are widely the Next week Could Move in consolidation and Breach of previous week Low would Clearly Signal A Short term top in place. While some pull back might be seen in near term before decisive break of 1033.9, downside should be contained well above 931.3 support and bring rally resumption. However, note that a break of 931.3 dampen the bullish view and suggest that rise from 681 has completed. This will indicate indicate that such rise is merely part of the consolidation pattern that started at 1033.9.

Gold Supports & resistance For Next Week

Support at 996 --984--967

Resistance at 1012--1024-1033-1052-1084-1114--1129

Gold Short term technical view -

2009-09-08T13:25:00.000-07:00

Gold Short term technical view : comex
Gold Short term view: Gold Closed down sharply below the 1000 $ mark, after making intraday High of 1007$. Profit Booking at current psychological level of 1000 Dollars cannot be ruled out as gold after consolidation for last weeks rallied Sharply and has reached this Crucial level again almost after six Months. Last time it made a High near this level was Exactly on February 20, 2009 making it a Double top on daily charts, Signally a Pause in the up-trend same time first caution Sign for the Bulls. Making 1007 $ now as very important Level Closely looking at the daily charts Can see a Nice inverted hammer - shooting star Formed at top Signally a pause in the current trend and the first caution Sign. The Reversal comes with Signals as Double top on daily charts, near the short term upward Trend line Resistance of Expanding triangle it was shaping up in last few weeks. Looking Closely at the Intraday 4 hour Chart which is widely followed, It made a good harami Reversal Exactly above the triangle breakout Level giving a False signal of buy near the top and reversed Sharply in the day to make New lows intraday .the Above all factors Shows that gold is Clearly loosening strength near the current Levels and Now will Face quite string Resistance at 1007-1012 mark , a breach above Same could upside up to 1033$ . As gold is now in the overbought zone which is indicated by the RSI on daily and Hourly charts any Rally on the upside above 1007 would mean shorts covering and nothing else. On the Downside if gold manages to Close below 984$ in a day or two would mean a confirmation of Short term possible top and could open possible Down side targets of 975$ & 955 $. Though Strong Support is Expected in zone of 928-942 $ , For Medium term . A close Below Same would open downside targets till 875 $

Trend Reversal levels: 984 $

Trend bias : Further Bullish Only above 1007 or else Sideways to down Possible

Next targets :975$-955$

(Reco:Note Those taking Fresh shorts at current level best possible SL is 1007 $ and Those Already long can Either Look to exit on Rise or maintain a trailling Stop Loss of 984 $)

Daily Technical view 040909

2009-09-03T21:22:00.000-07:00

Comex Gold-GC : Reversed few Dollars just away from the psychological Level of 1000$, after making a Intraday High of 997$. A Strong up move has been Seen From 940$to 997$ , Expecting it face string Resistance in zone of 1004$ to 1008$ Range, Could Consolidate again a bit before Making new highsConsolidation Range : 974$-997$Trend Reversal Level: Close Below 963$Next target : 1004$

MCX gold : Gold prices Move dup sharply from sub 15000 Levels to 15800 Levels in weeks time , Some amazing strength. The Immediate Resistance Comes now near to 15916 & 16029 , Looking for it to be tested and could Consolidate also a bit before Same . Before Making Fresh moves Consolidation Range : 15500-15800 RangeNext target 16400

Comex Silver : tested the resistance of 16.22$ which was May Months high and again failed Same to close below 16.00$ , Would find Supports now at 15.65$ & 15.84 $ and Consolidate bit before making fresh Up moves for Possible target of 16.36-16.84Consolidation Range : 15.84-16.22 Next target : 16.36

MCX silver : Silver Prices managed to Surpass the Important resistance at 25650 and moved up sharply to make new high around 26250 Levels , Expecting it to consolidate a bit before any further fresh Moves , Supports now at 26101-25840Consolidation Range : 25760-26340Next target 27800 ( if closes above 26500)

Nymex Crude oil : Trading in indecisive to downwards bias Since past two days but managing to Close above 67.50$ , a Close Below same would Open downward targets till 64 $ and Move Past 70 $ again would open the possibilities of re test of recent high of 72.5$ & 73.46 $trend : sideways to Range bound

MCX crude oil : Managing to close above the crucial level of 3320 Since past few days after the sharp fall from 3510 , Need to wait and watch this is consolidation or halt before the next move starts or a Possible base building for a bounce again , weak below 3300 & intraday Bias turns Positive above 3400

Natural Gas Nymex : took Support Just above the first targets of 2.4$ as mentioned Earlier and closed sharply negative, would play in this small range now before Further making new Lows, on downside Strong Support at 2.41 & 2.355 $ close below Same could Open targets for physiological Levels of 2$

MCX natural gas : After the sharp Downfall intraday halted just above the Crucial Support level of 121, Would Play in small Range near this Zone 121-138, before Making fresh move. A close below 121 could open Downside Possible targets of 95

Base Metals MCX :
Copper is consolidating in Small Range of 298--313 Rupees , A Break On any side would indicate Further move

Lead strongest of all managed to cross above 110 opening upside possible targets of 114 & 120 in short term Reversal in trend if closes below 104

Nickel is looking weak with supports coming in at 882 & 866 Zone , a Close above 908 Would open upside target of 935 again on downside below 866-840

Zinc : zinc as been mangling to Stay above the important Support of 90 but not giving any fresh upside up move . A Move past 92.65 could open upside targets of 95- 98

Silver Technical Analysis Short term view

2009-09-03T11:37:00.001-07:00

Silver Short Term view , Approching very important Resistance Zone

Silver Short Term view
Comex Silver: Silver Rallied quite sharply to retest the First Resistance zone of 16.22 which was high made in last week of May and Recent intermediate top. From where Silver fell Down to make a higher bottom at 12.50$ and again bounced back Sharply to re -test Same levels , Over the Short term once Silver Crosses 16.22$ it would be Entering the half unfilled gap which it had attempted to Fill in the month of may and Failed and this Second attempt on same . the Gap which is From 16.84$ to 15.44 $ created during downfall which started in August 2008 month, the Zone 16.22$ to 16.84 $ has Many intermediate Resistance in between which are very important once and can be a Strong resistance Zone firstly 16.35$ which is 61.8 % Fibonacci Retracements level of Complete Downward move Which Started From the top of 21.30$ to the lows of 8.44 $ . A Close above 16.36$ S Would clearly mean that the Complete correction from 21$ to 8.44 is Over and Silver again Ready to re-test the Recent highs and Even surpass Them in the medium term . Next Resistance in between is coming up from the trend line which is a Rising upward trend line connecting the Highs of gap made in August month to the May top which is Cuming around 16.4$ levels . So overall will have to Wait and Watch how Silver manages to trade in this Complete Resistance filled zone of 16.22$ to 16.84$ . A Firm close above 16.84$ would Mean that silver Is getting ready For Medium term bigger up move With Next possible targets at 17.8$ & 19.12$ in the near term . Looking at the lead indicators silver is currently at resistance Cuming from the weekly Bollinger band and On Daily charts has crossed the upper band with great Strength indicating that could soon get into a consolidation phase for few Days before making fresh up move or Next move. The RSI daily charts is near 74 almost approaching the upper end of Overbought Zone (Please note: a Stock or commodity Can continue it’s up move though the indicators are in overbought zone for Long time).The MACD is still in Buy sign Zone

Natural Gas updated view

2009-09-03T09:16:00.000-07:00

Please Note : Writing This and No charts posted as getting Loads of Yahoo queries & please may i have Hymble request Do Not Call upon Cell phone For NG queries as i would Reply on Same written below , i Dont mean to be rude ..but my view Remains Same
.... i am Sorry
Close to First target of 2.41 mentioned before almost , will have to Wait and watch How it reacts in this Zone and Consolidates Here . To give the Next possible targets , a Close below 2.40 Would open 2.35--2.226 targets

MCX traders : My view Once Again : NG is continueing its Bearish trend , No Short term or Even intraday bottom Seen , any one taking Long would be just taking a high Risk with hopes of Some Short Covering or buying at Lower level which will pull it up ..but as if Now on Charts No Buying Sign visible ..or even a Intraday Bottom ...Requesting people to Follow Same and wait for Futher message ..Every one has Different buying price and If u ask Me best possible SL than it could be 121 Which indicated is Long term Support zone ..but that Doesnt mean Start taking longs with as SL too ...

Repeating on the Spread part again the Difference between October Contract and September is Increasing Evey Day ..Dont try and Buy September and Sell october the Spread is increasing From 38 bucks to 61 Now ..and i Dunno how much More it will increase or Reduce and why the Spread ...this is not a Arbitrage or hedge Which u can play ...

Silver Short term technical view 260809

2009-08-26T03:19:00.000-07:00

Silver made a high of 24250 in second week Of august later on fall sharply downwards to 22500 which was strong medium term support to Bounce back sub 23400 level , the Complete retracement was in a form a Channel which has height of almost 650 Points . Looking at different possibilities over short term and Patterns visible

case a) medium term trend Shows that the retracement was in Form a channel and Now will face strong resistance in the Zone of 23600-23750 Zone, a strong momentum close above the said levels can open upside target of 23750+ 650(channel height) i.e. 24400 .

Case b) If unable to Cross the resistance of 23600-750 and falls back to re test the support near 23250 and a Breach below same would open possible Downside targets of 23250-650 (channel height) i.e. 22600 and Over larger trend Possible downside targets of 21850-22100 .. Possible Extension of Previous Move

Important Levels : 23210--23265 Zone Downside
23600-23750 upsdie
Chart analysis : case a) marked with pink arrows
case b) Marked With yellow arrows
Channel marked with blue Lines

It is Safely assumed that you agree and Abide with Disclosure & disclaimer mentioned on website www.askchirag.com

Technical view 260809

2009-08-26T00:23:00.000-07:00

Comex gold : Comex gold has been trading still in the triangle in medium term which is range of 926 & 972 $ , a Breach on any Side Would signal the next possible trend. In the short term its been Hovering in Small range of 935 $ & 960$ , Suggest good Consolidation a Decisive break on Any side with good volumes will lead to further trend which can be there For next 3-4 weeks

MCX gold : Gold Has been lot whipsaws Recently trading in larger channel of 14800 & 15025 , and on intraday Basis Breaching Both the levels in currently week, but managing to Close again inside the range same Day , A clear close outside range of 14800 on downside would open targets till 14450 & on upside a close above 15065 Would Open target of 15350
Trend Analysis : Sideways Range boundGold : 14940-14970-15010-15035-15070 Trend (Range bound sideways)

Comex Silver : Comex Silver Re-tested the medium term Resistance in Zone of 14.45$ & 14.55$ , a Breakout above same would Mean the start of fresh new up trend After consolidation opening upside target of 14.86--15.05 Shorts Can be taken for Short term with Closing Sl at 14.55 , with Again downside targets of 14.02--13.85 levels

MCX silver : Silver Will Face stiff resistance in the zone of 23500-23550 , a breakout above same with good volumes can open upside target of 23800-23940. Avoid Fresh long unless 23550 is taken off with volumes. on the downside supports are Seen at 23289-23210-23040
Trend analysis Silver: 23525 Important resistance Above that 23685, Support 23289-23210-23040 (buy only if sustains above 23525)

Crude oil Nymex : Crude corrected sharply From higher levels of 74.86 $ to close below 72$ , the intermediate support is seen at 70.45$ where traders can again look to buy with SL below 69.55 , On upside will face Resistance at 72.45$ & 73.80$ again
Trend Analysis : Buy on Dips till 69$ is held on closing basis

MCX crude : Crude oil will Find Support in range of 3432 levels Which is important Support level , below Which trend will reverse on upside Resistance is Seen at 3565 & 3600 , A firm Close above 3630 Will open upward targets of 3780Trend Analysis : Buy on Dips till 3420 is held on closing basis

Natural gas Nymex : Natural gas after bouncing of little From the oversold region is trading in a Bullish flag more on Sideways near the zone of 3.20 $ , a Move 3.385 Would open upside target of 3.68$ . on downside supports at 3.01 & 2.80 are Seen , Re-test Of recent lows Cant be ruled Out. On upside Strong resistance is seen at 3.530 & 3.65 levels is seen

MCX natural gas : Natural gas Price Bounced of from recent lows of 155, the oversold zone to test the first resistance at 165 , And Retracted back to consolidate again in range of 159 & 162 , on upside Breach of 165 would open targets till 172--174, On downside supports seen at 155-158

Base metals Levels :
Nickel : 927--931-938-946-954-968
copper 311.35-309.3-308.5-306.5
Lead :100.2-99.5-98.65-98
Zinc : 90-89.4-88.6-8T

Crude oil Technical view 260809

2009-08-25T20:27:00.001-07:00

Crude oil has been Moving in a Rising wedge Since the upmove from 63 $ to 75 $ , currently the supports are coming in at 70.65 $ , where Short term traders can Look to long again with SL below 69.50 % for target of 74 $ again . A close below 69.50 $ would mean that the upmove from 63$ to 75 $ has completed and the commodity could correct & retrace back to next intermediate support aroudn 67.3 $ and Below that re-test the short term Lows again . On upsdie It will find String resistance at 72.45 $ and above that at 73.86$--75$ ,

Gold Range Trade - Technical channel breakout

2009-08-21T05:35:00.000-07:00

Gold breaking out of a Channel , above 15025 an upside of 180 bucks can be trades With SL just below 15000

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Technical view 210809

2009-08-21T01:03:00.000-07:00

MCX Gold: Gold Prices have Been Range Bound to Downwards for the week heading from upper end of the resistance Channel at 15010 Levels to Lower Support End at 14825 levels
The prices more or less Seems to Trade in Very Small Range mainly effected by the Currency Movement.
Trend Analysis: Range Bound - Sideways

Comex Gold: Trading in sub due Range of 940$, Comex gold has Been In very Small range of 15$ for complete week as if now. As Indicated before Finding Resistance at crucial resistance zone of 948$ and supports on down side Range of 932$ below which Next Support is at 925$
Trend Analysis: Range Bound - Sideways

MCX Silver: Silver prices Edged Lower for the week and took Support at medium term Support zone of 22500 and Bounced back from there to trade in median Range of 22700-22900 Levels
Strategy Still Remains of buys on dips Side to trade Silver So far as 22500 Medium term Support is held on closing basis. Positive Divergence is seen on indicators Which Suggest a Sharp pull back due to Short covering or Fresh buying near Supports Cant be Ruled Out
Trend Analysis: buy on Dips

Comex Silver: Silver prices dropped below the crucial level of 14.17$ to immediately test the second short term Support at 13.54$, and Re bounced back to test the psychological level of 14$ again. 13.54--13.20$ is good Support zone with multiple supports in range, Fresh buying Can be initiated for medium target of 15 $ again.
Trend Analysis: Buy on dips With SL below 13.20$ closing basis

MCX Crude oil: Crude oil Prices gave a fresh breakout to move higher towards the 3620 mark, the previous Resistance at 3475-3510 Will now act as a good Support on medium term, A retest of the Following level cant be ruled out and fresh Long positions can be created near these levels For new Highs, trend reversal only if manages to close below 3425
Trend Analysis: Bullish

NYMEX crude oil (Sep contract) : Crude oil Prices Moved Higher to Make a new high of 74$ finally breaking out the crucial Resistance zone of 73.46$ ,on upside open chances for re test of possible targets of 75$ & 76.5 $ on short term, supports will come in at 72$ & 70.17 $
Trend analysis: Bullish

MCX Copper : Copper prices have been finding Support Near 292 Zone and on upside Resistance at 301 Level and been trading the same Range For last few days, Fresh Shorts Can be initiated Only if manages to Close below 289.5 Levels for further downside targets of 274.till keep trading in the range
Trend Analysis: Sideways to Down

Comex Copper : Copper Prices have been getting good Support in the range of 271$ , managed to test Same many time in intraday But failed to Close below Indicating strength and Fresh buying coming in the same level. Shorts may be Created only on breach these Levels On closing basis. On upside Resistance at 281$ & 285 $

MCX Silver hourly charts 170809

2009-08-17T10:29:00.000-07:00

MCX Silver Hourly Chart Updated

Weekly Technical outlook Base Metals

2009-08-16T04:54:00.001-07:00

BASE Metals :

Looking at last two candles of the most widely traded base metals Like copper, Nickel , Zinc, lead, aluminum all Are Showing Some or the other type of Candlestick reversal patterns indicating that if the Following week if Prices fail to Cross the recent high and weaken further indicating, Short term top is getting Formed and prices could Correct get into a Sideways move or a correction which could be a Little sharper More than 10 % as the prices had Move up a lot in Recent weeks

Copper MCX : a Close Below 301 Would open Downside targets of 292--271 with immediate Reistance at 311

Nickel MCX : Resistance at 962--980 , Supports at 928--880--740

Zinc MCX : Immediate Support Seen at 85.5 Below Which could head for 81 , on upside 89.25 & 01 are Strong resistance

Lead MCX : Lead below 88 Could re test the support at 83.5 and on upside has resistance at 89-90.4--91.95-92

Weekly Technical outlook

2009-08-16T04:54:00.000-07:00

Precious Metals

Comex gold : Gold Manged to close at 948.3 $ Down by 0.5 % for week. Gold Manged to retest the uper trend Line resiatnce at 962$ after giving a False Breakout of the inverted head & shoulder Patterns on daily basis formed in short term bottom. But Failled to Cross the immediate Resiatcne Finally falling of the cliff again to Close at Support level of 948.3 $ as indicated in the previous Post that this Lvel is a crucial level. Overall gold has Been In sideays For the past three weeks and has been making Doji's on the weekly chart on closing basis , Idnicating that its lacking a clear Signal from the market For the further trend
Looking at the medium term picture till the time Short term resistance of 963 & 977 $ are Crossed on closing basis it would move sideways to Downwards opeing a re-test of 924$ and below which pyschological level of 900 $.

Looking at the indicators MACD & RSI still suggest that it will continue the Sideways Movement . The Stochastic Oscialltor Is indiaction a Short term Downard move. Hence Overall medium term trend is sideways to Downside unless the Medium term reistance of 977 $ is taken off

MCX gold : MCX Gold traded In small range of 3 % for complete week , On upsdie facing Strong resistance near the short term trend Reversal level of 15050 and on dowside getting Support Near the medium term Support Zone of 14750 .Overall the trend Is Looks into Sideways consolidation lacking clear Direction. A Firm Close above 15125 would Mean that the upsdie trend has Resumed and Would Open targets till 15400--15700. On dowsndie 14500 and 14310 Are strong Supports Zone and buying again could come in at Those levels . If Doesnt breach any ways of these crucial level the Same sidewyas trend Would Continue

Comex Silver : Silver prices Were max volatile for the week making a New Monthly high of 15.18 $ finally Falling sharply on last trading Session of week to Close at 14.710 . So has the prices are trading above the short term Support zone of 14.17 $ the upsdie can continue. for re-test of Medium term Resiatcne at 16.25 $ . overall trend Seems to be strong on the upside with Strong bounce coming in on ever Higher bottom made . The Overall Short term Trend will continue to Be bullish So far the 14.17 $ support Is held , Below Which opening the downard targets of re test of Recent medium Term Lows at 12.25 $
Looking at the Indicators the MACD has First given weaking sign indicating that Bulls need to get the Trailling SL for longs quite close. The RSI is about to apporch the short term Over bought zone. The Stochastic Is indiacting that prices Will remian Range bound with traders jumping in to Buy at every Dip.HEnce the Medium Short term trend will remian postive till time it manges ot trade above 14.17$ and fruther break below that would indicate that the prices are getting in correction mode , opeing Downside targets of 12.45 & 11.06 $

MCX silver : MCX silver made New weekly high of 24270 crossing over the previous High of 24149, but Final looseing the steam to close the week at 23714. The Momentum on the upsdie remians to be strong So far 23300 is held On closing basis opening upsdie Possible targets of 24450 ^ 24899 , A Breach below 23300 Would open retest of short term supports at 22900 and a Breach of same Would Indicate that overall short term upside trend is over and prices are all set to correct opening Downside possible targets of 21600 and 20800 eventually

Weekly Technical outlook

2009-08-16T04:42:00.000-07:00

Crude oil Nymex : Crude oil Faced stiff Resistance near the previous Double top of 73.46 in week after Rising From the Short term bottom Formed in the week at 68.71$ . Falling to Cross the previous Resistance Crude oil fell Down Sharply on last trading Session to close at 67.47 $ breaching the short term bottom of 68.71$ , Which clearly Signals weakness and suggesting that it is again going down to test the next Short term Support at 63.45 $ & later the medium term support at 58.32$. on the upside crude oil will Now Face Stiff resistance at 68.71 $( Support becoming Resistance) & later on at 70.05 $ and 72.85$

Looking at Daily Charts indicators the MACD has clearly given a Sell Sign turning Downward and suggesting that crude oil could be heading for the intermediate target of 62.05$ in the following week. Stochastic oscillator@ 73 Now Suggesting that uptrend is Now capped & crude oil could get into a Sideways consolidation or slowly Drift Downwards

Looking at the Larger picture the weekly charts are clearly suggesting that the rise From medium term lows of 33.26 $ to 73.46$ is Over and the Next leg of Consolidation & downward journey has Started and re opening the possibilities of Re-test Of medium term Supports at 58$ below Which 55 $ and Finally 48.56 $ possible . On the Upside 73.46 $ previous week's top (yes dbl top) will be a Stiff Resistance to Cross and above the upward journey will face resistance at fib levels of complete move From 147$ to 33 $ . giving Resistance at 76.7$ (38.2 %) & 90.4 $ (50%) . A Close above Same Would mean that medium term correction is Over and possible of sharp reversal in price will start Factoring in

MCX Crude oil : MCX crude oil felt down 4.5 % on first day of New Contract following Global prices. Multiple tops Have been at 3567 Levels and The last two days Clearing signally a trend reversal with a Shooting star at top and follow up Sell off Closing Finally at 3382
Mix Crude oil in short term Will find support at 3279 & 3173 ( short term bottom). MCX crude could Find support 3325 in the Following A trend . A Close Only above 3510 Would indicate the Correction is Over and Final Could again re test the Short term Resistance at 3567 . A Strong Move Above Same with volumes Would Indicate that a New leg of Fresh up Move Has started opening upside Possible targets of 3640--3730

NYMEX Natural Gas : Natural gas after making a new yearly Low at 3.150 bounced back to close at 3.277 with little profit Booking Setting in From Shorts over The week in the last hour of the trade. NG Closed more than 11.5 % Down for the week

Looking at the Daily charts it clearly indicates that still lot of weakness is left and the again a breach of short term support at 3.150 & 3.255 Could open the Next possible target of the psychological level of 3.00 $. A few session trading below same would Indicate that the ones playing for the seasonal long on Natural gas Which generally starts From July to December Also start unwinding positions and as no new fresh buyers Would Set in Could put severe pressure on prices opening the Downside possible target of 2.68$. On upside 3.42$ will be a Strong resistance in the short term & a piercing Close Above Same would Indicate the short term Consolidation which is going on in form a triangle is Still going on could Re open upside target of 4$ again

Looking at the indicators the MACD & RSI are almost nearing oversold zone and a bounce back again cant be ruled out. The stochastic oscillator is at lowest support levels indicating can reverse Soon if the prices stay afloat above 3.42 $ zone Levels. The Overall trend hence looks weak if NG continues to trade below the support of 3.25 and if Mange’s to trade above Same would Mean that Sideways consolidation is still going on and retest of 4$ cant be ruled out ..

MCX Natural gas : MCX natural gas mange to Stay above the Crucial support level of 158 , Indicating little bit strength . A Breach of Same Would open downside targets of 152 and 135 as first target . On upside natural gas Will Find Strong Resistance at 174 & 188 levels a close Above Same Would mean that the short term trend has turned Bullish opening upside target of 229.

Technical view 140809

2009-08-14T03:35:00.000-07:00

MCX Gold : Gold traded sideways with little gains as indicated yersterday , we Still hold same view till time its trading below 15050 , it remains Same Sell on sell rise, Immediate Reistance to gold is Seen at 14980 & 15050 . A Closing above Same Would reverse the trend
Trend Analysis : Range bound ^ Sideways

Comex Gold : Currently trading Near crucial level of 955 $ , abv 962 Would make intraday bias as neutral and above 972 $ would change The trend to Postive. till than Sell on Rise For Possible lower targets of 920 $
Trend Analysis : Range bound

MCX Silver : Silver moved up above the crucial Resistance of 23980, a Breach below Same Would Indicate that bias has turned netural for the Day and shorts Can be attempted For Downside targets of 23300
Trend Analysis : Neutral to bearish

Comex silver : Silver Crossed crucial reistance of 1500 , but is findind it diffuclt to move the past the next intermediate resitance of 1532, a Breach below 1488 would again open Downside targets til l1430
Trend Analysis : neutral to bearish

Energies
MCX Crudeoil : Last Day For teh August Contract Expecting volatility and range bound trade between 3368--3442 on upside

NYMEX Crudeoil : Crude Re tested the Recent Resistance of 7346and failled to Cross again , and Falling down to 7200 levels, Making it a Case of triple top If closes Below 69.45$. Supports seen at 7225--7185--7046. A Close 7346 Would open trgts til 7680 7990
Trend Analysis : Sideways to upside

MCX Natural gas : As Indiacted yesterday that trend is down adn could further see Selling pressure if breaks 168, NG closed below the crucial Support of 168 opening downside trgts till 154. A retest of Resiatnce at 168 Cant Be rulled out
Trend analysis : Downward

Natural Gas : NG has been Trading inside a parallel Range Since last few Days , Break on any Side Could give a Fresh Move on any side , On upside 4.200 is very Importnat Reistance a Close above Same would Mean that the trend has Reversed and Now its Buy on Dips opening as upside trgt of 5.40$ and 7$ For Medium term As If Now . On Downisde Supports are near 3.882$--3.460--3.165$ , A close below 3.165 % would Mean that the correction is still on and Could try hit the new Possible Downside trgt of 2.41$

Base Metals

Commdity S1 S2 R1 R2 Pivot
Copper 306 304 310 313 306
Nickel 992 998 1014 1028 1007
LEad 90 90.1 91.85 92.4 91.85
Zinc 90.25 90.8 91.65 92 91.25

MCX Copper Technical Analysis 13th August 2009

2009-08-13T09:45:00.001-07:00

Technical View 130809

2009-08-13T03:32:00.000-07:00

MCX Gold : Gold traded on upside with Least gains among all commodity , the view Still remains Same Sell on sell rise, Immediate Reistance to gold is Seen at 14980 & 15050 . A Closing above Same Would reverse the trend
Trend Analysis : Range bound

Comex Gold : Currently trading Near crucial level of 955 $ , abv 962 Would make intraday bias as neutral and above 972 $ would change The trend to Postive. till than Sell on Rise For Possible lower targets of 920 $
Trend Analysis : Range bound

MCX Silver : Silver moved up above the crucial Resistance of 23092 as given in Yesterday post and achived next target of 23400, Above 23550 Would open upside targets of 23800 & 24150
Trend Analysis : Bullish

Comex silver : Silver Crossed crucial reistance of 1500 and is headed for next Possible target of 1560 with intermediate resistance Seen at 1523. Trend Reversal seen if manges to close below 1460
Trend Analysis : Bullish

Energies
MCX Crudeoil : Crudeoil is trading above the crucial Resistance of 3432 , A close abv same would open upside Possible targets of 3510-3555
Trend Analysis : Range Bound

NYMEX Crudeoil : above 7145 Crude oil could try test the Nest resistance level of 72.6. Multiple Resistance is Seen between 72.6 & 73.40 . A Close above Same would mean opening Next possibel upside target of 75.60--78.3
Range 72.05 $ --69.00 $ ( Break of any side Fresh Move Expected)
Trend Analysis : Range Bound

MCX Natural gas : Strong Support near 168 below Which Can open trgts as low as 152 .
On the upside has Strong Resistance at 178—181-188 Levls . till time trading below 178 trend is Downwards with risk of 168 to be broken anytime . Above 178 trend neutral and Above 192 Trend Bullish
Trend analysis : Near Supports/ Downward

Natural Gas : NG has been Trading inside a parallel Range Since last few Days , Break on any Side Could give a Fresh Move on any side , On upside 4.200 is very Importnat Reistance a Close above Same would Mean that the trend has Reversed and Now its Buy on Dips opening as upside trgt of 5.40$ and 7$ For Medium term As If Now . On Downisde Supports are near 3.882$--3.460--3.165$ , A close below 3.165 % would Mean that the correction is still on and Could try hit the new Possible Downside trgt of 2.41$

Base metals levels

CommdityS1 S2 R1 R2 Pivot
Copper 304 299.5 304.7 309 302.8
Nickel 912 927.5 976 1024 963
Lead 89.2 89.75 91.1 92.5 90
zinc 88.30 90.05 91.65 92.85 90.35

Technical view 120809

2009-08-12T04:21:00.000-07:00

MCX Gold October
Gold Resistance at 14850—14925 levels One Can Use this Levels to Create Fresh Shorts With SL around 15050 lvls For Possible trgts of 14500 Lvls
Trend : Sideways to Down . Reversal Level 15050 Closing basis

Comex Gold : Gold trading below the crucial Support of 955$ . Resistance at 962$ -965 $
Sell On Rise Recommend with SL closing basis 972 $. On Downside will Re test 920$ -904$ support

MCX silver October:
Silver Finding Support near 22800 levels, below which Can Retest 22500 & 22300 levels
On upside has Important Reistance at 23092 Above which can again do 23250—23400
Trend analysis – Up/sideways

Comex Silver :
Silver has good Support Near 14.02 $ , on upside Faces resistance near 14.47$ & 14.61 $
A Firm close For two-three Trading Sessiaon abv 14.68$ can open upside target of 15.35$
Trend Analysis – up/sideways

Energies
MCX Crude Oil : MCX crude Oil till time trading below 3430 is sell on Rise with Immediate Supports coming on Downside at 3353 & 3318 Levels , On Upside 3452—3470—3510 are important resistance Levels
Nymex Crude : Trading below the Crucial Level of 71.45 $ opens a re test of 67$ on downside . On upside Important Resistance at 71.45$--72.05$--73.5$ .
Trend analysis : Sideways/downward
Range 72.05 $ --69.00 $ ( Break of any side Fresh Move Expected)

Natural Gas : NG has been Trading inside a parallel Range Since last few Days , Break on any Side Could give a Fresh Move on any side , On upside 4.200 is very Importnat Reistance a Close above Same would Mean that the trend has Reversed and Now its Buy on Dips opening as upside trgt of 5.40$ and 7$ For Medium term As If Now . On Downisde Supports are near 3.882$--3.460--3.165$ , A close below 3.165 % would Mean that the correction is still on and Could try hit the new Possible Downside trgt of 2.41$

Natural Gas MCX : Strong Support near 168 below Which Can open trgts as low as 152 .
On the upside has Strong Resistance at 178—181-188 Levls . till time trading below 178 trend is Downwards with risk of 168 to be broken anytime . Above 178 trend neutral and Above 192 Trend Bullish
Trend analysis : Near Supports/ Downward

Base metals levels

Commdity S1 S2 R1 R2 Pivot
Copper 288.5 290.1 292.5 294.8 291.65
Nickel 916 932 948 966 927.5
Lead 84.8 85.4 86.05 86.5 85.65
zinc 85.4 86.05 86.6 87.4 86.2

Natural Gas Technical Analysis 6th Aug2009

2009-08-06T07:12:00.001-07:00

NG has been Trading inside a parallel Range Since last few Days , Break on any Side Could give a Fresh Move on any side , On upside 4.200 is very Importnat Reistance a Close above Same would Mean that the trend has Reversed and Now its Buy on Dips opening as upside trgt of 5.40$ and 7$ For Medium term As If Now . On Downisde Supports are near 3.882$--3.460--3.165$ , A close below 3.165 % would Mean that the correction is still on and Could try hit the new Possible Downside trgt of 2.41$

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Gold Technical Analysis 4th August 2009

2009-08-04T09:53:00.000-07:00

Gold breaking out of Inverted head & Shoulder With Height of nearly 44$, Which Opens an upside from 965 $ to 1009$ , With intermediate Resisatnce at 980$--992$--1004 $ , Long traders can maintain SL below 955 $ closing basis

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Crude Technical Analysis 30th July 2009

2009-07-30T07:05:00.000-07:00

Crude oil technical Analysis 29thjuly2009

2009-07-29T07:01:00.000-07:00

Crude Oil has Broken the Coorective trend Line , Which started From recent lows of 58$ extended to 68.87$, On upside Now will face Stiff Resistance at 67.86$ , Next Support Seen at 64.4 $ , Below Which Could Open trgts as Low as 62.4 $

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Silver Technical Analysis 29th july 2009

2009-07-29T06:53:00.000-07:00

Crude Technical Analysis 17thjuly2009

2009-07-17T05:36:00.000-07:00

Technical update on Crude oil , Hourly Charts analysis

Gold Technical Analysis 15th july2009

2009-07-15T11:14:00.001-07:00

Crude Technical Analysis 15th july2009

2009-07-15T10:43:00.001-07:00

Conjestion Near Resistance
Crude oil Retracted back to Re-test the First Fib Resistance of 23.6 % , (Calculated From Recent high of 73.5 $ to Recent lows of 58.25 $), A Close above Same on Daily charts could Open possible upside trts till Next Resistance of 38.2 % Which is around 64 $
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Gold Technical analysis 14th july2009

2009-07-14T09:08:00.001-07:00

Gold Technical analysis 14th July 2009

2009-07-14T09:08:00.000-07:00

Crude Technical Analysis 13th July 2009

2009-07-13T04:31:00.000-07:00

Crude possiblity of Small pull back . Check out chart for the upper resistance in near zone

Note : Reco open on Crude BTST :: Booked half and Moved SL below Cost

Crude Technical Analysis 10th July 2009

2009-07-10T10:00:00.000-07:00

Crude Technical Analysis 9th July 2009

2009-07-09T10:26:00.000-07:00

Crude Chart 15-min , Loads of Buy / Sell Reversals indicated in Short Span of time . Suggesting bears Might be Looseing Strength or Some profit Booking & Consolidation before Next move

Expecting a Good Move upto 62.8 if manges to Cross 60.6 Before making New Low

Note :: Chart is Updated For Educational purpose to Explain Few Technical terms And Shouldnt be Taken as a trading Recommendation

Silver Technical Analysis 8th July 2009

2009-07-08T05:09:00.000-07:00

Silver Currently trading at 12.95 $ , had broken the important medium downward Trend line coming up from the recent lows of 8.44 $. The break-down level was 13.25$--13.35$ . On Daily Charts after closing taking Support at 12.97$ the Short term Support it Reversed back to Re test the Support which was broken and it acted as String resistance. Breaking below 12.97$ again . The Yellow trend line on Chart is Medium term trend line & Red Horizontal Line Shows the 12.97 $ Support
Looking at Intraday 15 Min Charts , a Evening Star & gravestone Doji Were Clearly visible , Signally that its Facing Strong Resistance at 13.15 $ levels and Inviting Fresh Shorts

A Close below 12.97$ Would Initiate further selling pressure Which Could drag Down the prices to 12.68$--12.54$--12.25$ Over Next few Days--week

Gold Technical Analysis 8th july 2009

2009-07-08T04:07:00.000-07:00

Gold has been trading Sideways to lower Range In a descending bearish triangle , For past couple of Days . Comex Gold is Finding Support at 920$ , While Facing Stiff Resistance at 934$ & 945 $ Levels, We Expecting Gold to Move Downwards today breaking the Support of 920$ below Which could test 915 $---902 $ , Those holding postional Shorts May maintain 935$ as SL for 4 Hour Closing basis

Crude Technical Analysis 7th July 2009

2009-07-07T10:15:00.000-07:00

Crude Oil Intraday has made Dragon Fly doji , Intraday players Can take Long with SL below that

MCX traders SL at 3050

Gold Technical Analysis 6th July 2009

2009-07-06T07:22:00.001-07:00

Gold for past 3 Weeks has been trading in small range of 920 -945 $ . Looking at the weekly charts it has formed a lowertop and bearish Candlestick pattern -- the harami Which is a Strong short term Reversal pattern . At Same time the Momentum trend Line From 681$--to Recent High of 1007 $ is giving Supports at 922 $ , Currently it has Breached Same in intraday . A Close Below 913 on weekly Basis would Confirm the Breach and Could Open possible Downside trgts of 902 ( Interim Good Support) & below that 888 $ . Postional traders Can Look to Short gold at Current Levels With Nearest SL at 938$ & safe one being at 946$

Gold Technical Analysis 6th July2009

2009-07-06T07:22:00.000-07:00

Natural Gas Technical Analysis 2nd July 2009

2009-07-02T10:08:00.000-07:00

Natural Gas After Breaking down , Re tested the Breakdown trendline , Look at the yellow trendline , it Indicates that the short term bearish view continues , but Same time at lows a Hammer has been Formed , So would Recommed Clients to go Long again abv the Trendline and Consider the break Down As whipsaw & same time if breaks the Low than its a Confirmed breakdown with volumes also Supporting same

MCx traders who are Long maintain 179 as SL and those who are short maintain 186 Trailling SL

Personally i am On bearish view and would prefer to Remian Short below 186 . A Close above Same would get the Commodity in netural Zone and close abv 194 would Reopen bullish Scene..

Crude Oil Technical Analysis 1st July 2009

2009-07-01T10:55:00.000-07:00

Crude oil could be heading Down For Much lower trgts if breaks the Neckline at 68.75 Zone with volumes and trades below that a day More,

Possible Downward trgts -- height of head 1.e 5 $ ..So we Could see Crude Coming Down to 63.5 Levels In coming Days , Maintain SL of 71 On all Shorts For Same

natural gas Technical Analysis 1st July 2009

2009-07-01T04:29:00.000-07:00

Natural Gas after Reversing From the short term bottom of 3.255 has been trending in A larger traingle as Indicated in graph, Currently trading at 3.783 Which Is almost Near the lower End of triangle ,

Looking From the onther angel view its been Sideways in a channel for past two week who's Support is also nearby at 3.750 Levels . Natural gas gives lot of whipsaws So as to trade the pattern being on Safe side . If NG breaks 3.715 Level as Indicated it open Downward trgts of 3.570 Which is good 8-10 % down , Looking on the upside it has Strong Resistance at 3.950 & 4.14 Levels a Move past that would Indciate the Recent down Fall has halted From 4.375 and the trend turns to be Netural still traidng inside larger triangle and one has to wait to see which side it gives a fresh breakout

Note : We have a open Reco Postional NG short at 186 MCX price With Sl at 194

Crude Technical Analysis 1st july 2009

2009-07-01T00:17:00.000-07:00

Crude Oil Daily Charts : Crude Oil has Been Trading in the range of 73.5 $ --66.5 $ , With Minor Double top at 73.5 but the distance between them is too Small to take a larger view on it , On ther other side its shapeing up in a Ascending trinagle With Supports coming in From upward trendline Drawn and marked with blue arrows, With the Inventory Data Expected today , We Feel On Breach of 68.75 $ Crude will head down again to Re test the Lower End of Range at 66.5 $, While On the upside will Face strong Resisatnce at 72.25 $ and 72.80 $, A Closing above 73.1 $ could bring chance of trend change with it opening new Upside Range of 73$--78$ , A Close Below 66.5 Could open Downward trgts of 63.5--58.9. Further till than trading the Range will be best option Sell On rise & buy on dips Inside the Range

Crude Technical Analysis 30th June 2009

2009-06-30T07:59:00.001-07:00

Book 50 % crude Now in range of 3361--65 Those Who all took Short in the Morning at 3375 Levels ,

Crude Technical Analysis 30th June 2009

2009-06-30T04:16:00.001-07:00

As the Day Started Clients were Fwded with Short Call on Crude

Postional Sell MCX crude At 3475 SL of 3540

Crude had Formed a bearish candlestick stick pattern of shooting star at top of Chart is indicates a Pause in the uptrend and possiblity of Change in trend , after that We Saw follow up selling and is Now trading at 3430 levels , Have Moved the SL closer to 3510 Now to play safe

Updateing chart So people Every One can understand what actually they are trading

Gold Technical Analysis 29th June 2009

2009-06-29T07:24:00.001-07:00

Gold Intraday Charts showing multiple support in the range of 934 $

on breach on if Range traders Can take short below that For possible trgts of 927--925 ,

Above 941 Shorts May get catious , Can do 943--948 again

Euro Technical Analysis 29th June 2009

2009-06-29T06:00:00.000-07:00

Crude Technical Analysis 25th June 2009

2009-06-25T20:29:00.000-07:00

Crude Technical Analysis 24th June 2009

2009-06-24T07:58:00.001-07:00

Possible cup & handle on Hourly crude , As the Short term trend Line Broken could re test that at 71.4 , avoidong Longs till further confirmations

Natural gas Technical Anaysis 24th june2009

2009-06-24T06:37:00.000-07:00

Natural gas After making the Short term Bottom has been moving in a larger triangle with the Current support coming at 3.7735 . A 4 hour average close below Same could change the trend From sideways consolidation to further downward move of 3.55--3.15 , Which are possible targets from break of Ascending triangle

Crude Technical Analysis 24th june 2009

2009-06-24T06:30:00.000-07:00

Crude oil After Making short term top at $ 73.15 had Sharply Fallen from the Short term trendline , the Trend Which Started from $49.05--$73.15. After touching a new Weekly low of $ 66.25 had bounced back to $68.6 Sub levels trending in a triangle further Downside is Expected on Breach of $ 68, opening lower trgts of 67.1--66.25---65 . On the upside it faces stiff Resistance at 70.1--71.4- 72.45 , Sell On rise with top as SL would be Recommended for Short term

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2009-06-22T09:39:00.000-07:00

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Gold Technical Analysis 22nd june 2009

2009-06-22T06:42:00.000-07:00

Gold is reacting negatively to the inflection point of our 2nd and 3rd tier uptrend lines. The swift pullback in gold follows a week of tight consolidation, signifying investors are siding with the downside after a period of indecisiveness. We believe today's movement to the south could be a game-changing statement with a retest of the highly psychological $900/oz likely. today's pullback hasn't been accompanied by abnormal volume thus far, so we will have to see how the session pans out. However, gold's downturn certainly raises a red flag, and we wouldn't be surprised to witness another near-term leg down.

Present Price: $919.85/oz

Resistances: $927.40/oz, $931.41/oz, $935.62/oz, $939.82/oz, $941.94/oz

Supports: $923.96/oz, $920.95/oz, $917.49/oz, $914.99/oz, $911.14/oz

Psychological: $950/oz, $900/oz

Crude Technical Analysis 22nd june 2009

2009-06-22T06:36:00.000-07:00

Crude Levels
Support: 68.80, 68.00, 67.45, 66.65, 65.30
Resistance: 69.40, 70.40, 71.50, 72.45, 73.20

About Us

2009-06-21T05:50:00.000-07:00

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askchirag.com is headed by Mr. Chirag Kabani, a technical analyst, with over five years of experience in the equity and commodity asset classes .Chirag Kabani as an individual is a Registered Sub- broker For past 3 yrs Associated with ANS Pvt ltd formerly know as Ajay Natavarlal Securities Pvt. Ltd . The Company askchirag.com was established in 2008 and has a large client base drawn from every sector. We have a team of experienced executives who possess a unique insight into the investor dynamics of Retail & HNI clients

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